The change: Oil production collapses in the middle east, driving prices of crude oil to over $500/barrel.
1. This change happened because reality finally caught up with the overblown estimates of reserves in the ground. Back in the 70’s, the method of estimating reserves was changed, drastically inflating the available oil, yet to be pumped from the ground. Based on the pre-1970 reserves, the production crash was correctly predicted and happened as scheduled. It was not expected because people had grown to believe the post 1970 inflated estimates of oil reserves.
2. Oil companies outside the middle east, those with reserves that are still exploitable.
3. The countries in the middle east. Initial suffering is horrendous as lack of cheap energy causes their desert ecosystems to revert to an arid, pre-green state. Lack of power for water de-salination initially causes riots. The situation is salvaged by the enormous dollar reserves the countries have, which they use to snap up alternative energy companies in the US and proceed to build solar/wind power farms in the desert.
Consequences
1. - No driving anywhere you want to
- Lot more emphasis on local consumption
- Massive switch to alternative energy where possible (solar rooftop-heating for water)
2. - Public transport is welcomed (instead of NIMBY)
- Plastics become expensive, cities start putting up public water fountains
- No more air travel
3. - Focus on recycling. Existing plastics are reused to the point of disintegration.
- People start spending more time in neighbourhoods and parks in walking distance.
- Obesity starts retreating - lack of cheap energy makes junk food expensive.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)